주식이 떨어지기만 하면 손실을 backstop해주는 연준의 부도덕적 행태때문에 미국 주식시장은 카지노로 변했고,
그로 인해 연준이 항복할 수 밖에 없는 순간이 닥치면 역사적 수준을 돌파하는 90% 폭락이 닥칠 가능성 충분.
그리고 90% 폭락할 경우에도, 주식쟁이들만 망쪼지 경제의 다른 분야는 굳건히 재도약 가능. 즉 세상은 멸망의 길에서 탈출.
주식쟁이들 및 월스트리트 금융가도 아주 완만한 회복단계로 진입. 단 과거처럼 V자 반등은 불가능,
오랜 세월에 걸쳐 서서히 회복.
현재의 미국 주식 시장은 카지노. 이 폰지 스킴은 절벽을 향해 달려가는 중.
If the Market Is a Casino, Does Valuation Matter?
Not to the players. In a casino, the chips don’t need intrinsic value—they just need to be accepted by the next player. Similarly, in a gamified market, valuation becomes secondary to belief in resale value:
This is Keynes’ “beauty contest” logic: investors don’t pick the most beautiful face, but the one they think others will find most beautiful. At a P/E of 1200, the game is no longer about discounted cash flows—it’s about narrative velocity and liquidity choreography.
🧠 What Replaces Valuation in a Gamified Market?
In a surreal 1200 P/E regime, the following forces dominate:
• Liquidity as gravity: If the Fed or Treasury injects enough liquidity, asset prices float regardless of earnings.
• Reflexivity: Rising prices justify themselves. Higher prices attract flows, which push prices higher.
• Social proof: If everyone’s playing, not playing feels like missing out. FOMO replaces due diligence.
• Moral hazard: If investors believe the Fed will backstop losses, risk becomes a mirage. This is the “Fed put” as a cultural artifact, not just a policy tool.
• Narrative dominance: AI, green energy, space colonization—any story that justifies infinite growth becomes a speculative accelerant.