We are doomed…Hospital beds per 1,000 people, by country and type of bed, 2016

제목이 좀 선정적이었다면 거 뭐시기 합니다만, 다들 전염되고 후회하지 말자는 의미로 받아 들이시면 감사.
Public Health쪽 물 드시는 분들에게는 이번 COVID-19이 Curve ball일 수는 있겠지요. 시간을 가지고 지켜볼 만한 예상들은 넘쳐나구요. 뭐 생기는 것도 없는 데 선동(!) 씩이나…쩝

http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

RESULTS
Compared to licensed capacity and average annual occupancy rates, excess demand from COVID-19 at the peak of the pandemic in the second week of April is predicted to be 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds and 17,309 (95% UI 2,432 to 57,584) ICU beds. At the peak of the pandemic, ventilator use is predicted to be 19,481 (95% UI 9,767 to 39,674). The date of peak excess demand by state varies from the second week of April through May.

We estimate that there will be a total of 81,114 deaths

(95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE
In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the US will place a load

well beyond the current capacity

of hospitals to manage,

especially for ICU care

.